EUROBANK CYPRUS QUARTERLY ECONOMIC MONITOR Year 4, Issue 2, July 2019 Contents • Fact-findings of our trip to Cyprus in late June • Rapid domestic banking sector developments with NPEs declining yet risks remaining • Q1-2019 softer GDP growth performance • Less rosy economic outlook 2019-2020 • Rating agencies remain on hold • Cyprus issues new 15Y and 30Y government…
EUROBANK CYPRUS QUARTERLY ECONOMIC MONITOR Year 4, Issue 1, March-April 2019 In 2018, GDP growth in Cyprus stayed close to its cycle peak, surpassing earlier forecasts – Rating agencies offered the country investment grade status for the first time since 2011 – Access to international capital markets was maintained at favorable terms – A new record in tourist arrivals, yet…
EUROBANK CYPRUS QUARTERLY ECONOMIC MONITOR Year 3, Issue 4, December 2018 Contents Q3-2018 GDP growth suggests the peak of the economic cycle is likely behind us International Organizations predict a solid economic outlook for the rest of 2018-2019 Fiscal over-performance gives rise to spending pressures In banking, the ESTIA plan earns approval by DG Competition but stirs debate in the…
EUROBANK CYPRUS QUARTERLY ECONOMIC MONITOR Year 3, Issue 3, October 2018 Contents Fact-findings of our trip to Cyprus in late September Recent domestic banking sector developments GDP growth performance close to a post-Lehman peak in Q2-2018 Economic outlook 2018-2019 Investment grade status for the first time since 2011 by two rating agencies Cyprus issues new 10Y government bonds Περίληψη συνολικού…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Outlook Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: July 2018, Year 3, Issue 2 Key Points The domestic banking sector map is redrawn as Cyprus Cooperative Bank (CCB) is liquidated CCB’s performing assets are absorbed by Hellenic Bank CCB’s NPEs under a new state-owned entity New shareholders in Hellenic Bank to strengthen its capital base An “ESTIA” scheme…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Outlook Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: March 2018, Year 3, Issue 1 Key points The re-election of President Anastasiades ensures policy continuity for the next five years, yet new challenges appear driven by rising public expectations In Q4-2017 the economy expanded by 3.9% on an annual basis, bringing the full year performance to 3.9% – the…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Outlook Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: December 2017, Year 2, Issue 5 Key points The solid economic performance continues into the fourth quarter of 2017 with particularly visible positive signals emanating from the property market In Q3-2017 the economy expanded by 3.9% on an annual basis, bringing the 9M-2017 performance to 3.8% Rating agencies continue to…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Outlook Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: October 2017, Year 2, Issue 4 Key points During 2015 and 2016 the Cypriot economy expanded much faster than previously perceived, with the Cyprus Statistical Service revising the GDP growth rate up to 2.0% and 3.0% respectively, from the earlier estimates of 1.7% and 2.8% In 2017 Q2 the economy…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Outlook Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: August 2017, Year 2, Issue 3 Key points: The economy expanded in Q1-2017 by 3.3% on an annual basis, the fastest pace in the post-Lehman period The economy’s solid performance continued into the second quarter of 2017 with encouraging signs across most sectors, including the real estate sector Cyprus tapped the international markets…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Monitor Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: May 2017, Year 2, Issue 2 Key points: The economy’s solid performance continued into the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first months of 2017 with encouraging signs across most sectors, including the real estate sector Since mid-2016 Cypriot government bond yields have defied the upward trend of the…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Outlook: The Cypriot Economy in 2016 Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: February 2017, Year 2, Issue 1 Key points: In 2016 the Cypriot economy took off, solidifying and speeding up the previous year’s recovery, leaving far behind the crisis years In 2016 Cyprus also exited the 2013 Economic Adjustment Program There is consensus among private and official forecasters…
Cyprus Quarterly Economic Monitor Authors: G. Hardouvelis, I. Gkionis Publication: June 2016, Year 1 |Issue 1 Key points: In March 2016, Cyprus became the third EMU country under surveillance to exit its Economic Adjustment Program, two months before the official expiration date, with no need to withdraw the full ClObn available credit Cyprus’ success in exiting the Program was driven…
A Decade Long Economic Crisis: Cyprus versus Greece Gikas A. Hardouvelis and Ioannis Gkionis Lead article in Cyprus Economic Policy Review, pp. 3-40, vol. 10, No. 2, 2016 Abstract: The paper compares the recent economic crisis in Cyprus with the much larger and still on-going crisis in Greece, traces the causes behind their differences and assesses each country’s future economic…
Economy & Markets: Overcoming the crisis in Cyprus Author: Gikas A. Hardouvelis Publication: Economy & Markets: Volume IX| Issue 1 |January 2014 Summary: Following the March 2013 bail-in of large bank depositors and the subsequent crisis, Cyprus faces major challenges and risks during 2014 and 2015. The first challenge is to ensure financial stability and lift all capital control restrictions. Another…
The Economy of Cyprus: An Overview Authors: G. Hardouvelis, C. Vorlow, E. Davradakis, E. Georgopoulos, I. Gkionis, T. Sabaniotis Publications: Economy & Markets, Issue 9, Volume 2, November 2007 Key points: Euro area membership as of January 2008 is expected to promote Cyprus as an international business hub in the Eastern Mediterranean. The favorable macroeconomic environment, the continued rise in loan demand…